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Is The Bay Area’s ‘Unprecedented’ Lockdown The First Of Many?

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Life got here to a grinding halt for hundreds of thousands of San Francisco Bay Area residents as probably the most stringent isolation orders within the nation took impact Tuesday.

To stem the unfold of the brand new coronavirus, roughly 7 million individuals in seven counties had been instructed to “shelter in place” and had been prohibited from leaving their properties aside from “essential” actions equivalent to buying meals, drugs and different requirements. Most companies closed, apart from grocery shops, pharmacies, eating places (for takeout and supply solely), hospitals, gasoline stations, banks and a handful of others.

The county orders, which have the power of legislation behind them, will final till April 7, though well being officers might prolong or shorten that deadline. Disobeying the orders may very well be a misdemeanor punishable by tremendous or imprisonment.

For many individuals within the famously unaffordable Bay Area, the orders might properly imply misplaced wages and jobs, as clients disappear and companies battle to pay their payments.

“It’s unprecedented in modern times to have this level of quarantining,” stated Jeffrey Schlegelmilch, deputy director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University in New York City.

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The Bay Area orders, which have an effect on San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda, Contra Costa and Santa Cruz counties, have sown confusion, partially as a result of cities, counties and states throughout the nation are creating completely different, generally conflicting guidelines for his or her residents. Just sooner or later earlier than the shelter-in-place orders had been introduced, Gov. Gavin Newsom referred to as on all California residents 65 and older to remain house, then expanded his orders after the Bay Area information broke.

On Tuesday, Sacramento County issued an identical directive, though it stopped in need of legally ordering individuals to shelter in place.

Other locations across the nation are anticipated to comply with the Bay Area’s instance, together with New York City, the place Mayor Bill de Blasio instructed residents Tuesday to count on a shelter-in-place order inside the subsequent 48 hours.

Why is that this taking place within the Bay Area?

These seven counties have greater than 350 confirmed circumstances of COVID-19, together with at the very least 5 deaths. But as a result of testing has been so restricted, the precise variety of residents contaminated with the novel coronavirus is probably going far larger than the official depend.

“We have been operating under a veil of ignorance because we do not have a sense of the truth,” Schlegelmilch stated. “Rather than having more specific measures aimed at containment, we have to have much more aggressive and widespread social distancing measures over the entire population to prevent this from completely overwhelming our health care system.”

The Bay Area is already seeing group unfold of COVID-19, and the variety of new circumstances is rising each day. In San Mateo County, for instance, officers introduced Tuesday that circumstances had jumped from 42 to 64 overnight.

“The infection rates in the six most populous counties of the Bay Area and the City of Berkeley suggest that the situation is critical and will worsen quickly, especially without rigorous intervention,” Santa Clara County wrote in an FAQ for residents.

The well being care system is already overwhelmed in some areas, the county stated: “The sooner these extreme measures are taken, the more effective they are because of how the virus spreads.”

Are such excessive measures actually vital?

While the brand new orders could seem draconian, public well being specialists say they’re good coverage.

The Bay Area counties, like the remainder of the nation, don’t understand how pervasive the virus is. And whereas a trove of research show that social distancing helps stem the unfold of coronavirus, there’s much less settlement about what precisely that appears like. For occasion, is it vital to ban gatherings of greater than 5 individuals? Or is greater than 50 sufficient?

It’s higher to err on the facet of warning, stated Dr. Ashish Jha, a professor of world well being at Harvard University. “The cost of overreacting is that there’s an economic cost and a social cost,” he stated. “But the cost of underreacting is a lot of people dying unnecessarily.”

Even although Americans had been warned to remain house and keep away from massive public gatherings, pictures circulating on social media over the weekend confirmed that many individuals had been persevering with to hold on life as traditional, Jha stated, equivalent to gathering at bars, assembly for brunch and attending St. Patrick’s Day parades.

“We are late in the game and we need to act aggressively,” Jha stated.

Should these choices be made on the regional stage?

Public well being authorities in cities, counties and states usually have extra in depth powers than federal officers to order quarantines throughout emergencies, stated Schlegelmilch of Columbia. That’s as a result of their authority was conferred within the days of smallpox and yellow fever, he defined.

Failure to adjust to the brand new Bay Area orders, for instance, could also be punishable by a tremendous or imprisonment, based on town of San Francisco.

But when President Donald Trump on Monday warned Americans to not collect in teams of 10 or extra, and to do business from home if potential, these had been options somewhat than authorized orders.

Dr. Richard Waldhorn, a professor of drugs at Georgetown University, stated a regional method is smart, particularly in a big and heterogeneous state like California.

“The deserts probably don’t need as extreme measures as the heavily populated Bay Area,” he stated.

And rural areas of the state could also be reluctant to order residents to remain of their properties, stated Dr. George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology on the University of California-San Francisco.

“We have a huge agricultural workforce that has to get the crops planted so we have food later in the year. If you miss that, there are big consequences of that,” he stated.

What sort of financial assist is offered to individuals affected by the orders?

There’s no query that hundreds of thousands of Californians will take a monetary hit from the disaster.

“Every time you’re implementing measures to prevent a public health disaster, you’re unintentionally creating another disaster” due to financial slowdowns and wage losses amongst people who find themselves paid hourly or can’t work remotely, Schlegelmilch stated.

Leaders promise that assist might be obtainable on the federal, state and native ranges.

The Trump administration proposed a $1 trillion financial stimulus plan Tuesday, together with sending money funds to Americans and delaying tax funds for 90 days, which requires congressional approval.

California was the primary state to get the federal Small Business Administration to supply loans to each for-profit and nonprofit companies hurting due to the outbreak. Loans of as much as $2 million can be found.

California legislators on Monday evening handed a $1.1 billion emergency response package that  will embrace help  for people, nonprofit organizations and small companies, however the precise particulars haven’t been hammered out but. Lawmakers then suspended the legislature for the primary time in 158 years, and received’t reconvene till April 13 or later.

The state can be encouraging employees to file incapacity insurance coverage claims in the event that they’re sick, or apply for paid household go away if they’re quarantined or caring for sick relations. Newsom waived the one-week waiting period to file for unemployment and incapacity insurance coverage. Workers may be eligible for employees’ compensation advantages if they’ll’t do their jobs due to the virus.

While tenants nonetheless need to pay hire, Newsom authorized local governments to cease evictions, gradual foreclosures and cease chopping off utilities through the outbreak. San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland and Los Angeles are among the many localities taking steps to halt evictions.

There are extra native reduction plans within the works. The city of San Francisco introduced a $10 million plan to supply an extra 5 days of sick go away to employees who’re house sick or caring for relations.

Who can go into work?

Not lots of people.

In the affected counties, individuals who can do business from home are required to take action. And those that workers “essential” providers, equivalent to well being care, municipal sanitation providers, legislation enforcement and jails, are nonetheless on the job.

Each county has outlined what’s important of their jurisdiction. For occasion, San Mateo County says fishermen can work, and San Francisco has particular directions about nannies.

Anyone working in gasoline stations, pharmacies, grocery shops, shops, banks and laundromats, and other people like plumbers and veterinarians, are also allowed to work.

There are another circumstances during which employees are allowed to do their jobs in individual. People making and delivering meals can, however individuals serving it can not. Drivers for ride-hailing firms and operators of public transit can nonetheless work, however these providers  must be used just for “essential” journey.

But such stringent orders can not final ceaselessly, even with authorities support.

“How long can that go on before you start to see detrimental effects on people?” requested Schlegelmilch of Columbia.

Use Our Content This story will be republished at no cost (details).

This KHN story first revealed on California Healthline, a service of the California Health Care Foundation.

Jenny Gold: jgold@kff.org”>jgold@kff.org, @JennyAGold

Rachel Bluth: rbluth@kff.org”>rbluth@kff.org, @RachelHBluth

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